France has moved to the top of the betting markets as the favorite to win the upcoming FIFA World Cup, while Argentina captain Lionel Messi has emerged as the leading contender for the tournament’s Golden Ball award.
According to prediction market platform Kalshi, France now holds the highest probability of lifting the World Cup trophy, overtaking other traditional contenders. Spain was listed close behind, while England rounded out the top three favorites.
The latest market figures showed Spain with a 17.3 percent chance of winning the title, France at 17.6 percent, and England at 11.4 percent. The updated odds reflect growing confidence in the French national team ahead of the tournament.
NEW: France are now the favorites to win the World Cup, via Kalshi.
Who’s a sleeper team that can make a run this summer? pic.twitter.com/ObJ9k7LtTn
— Kalshi Sports (@KalshiSports) May 31, 2026
Meanwhile, the race for the Golden Ball — awarded to the best player of the World Cup — appears to be led by Messi.
The Argentine superstar was given a 44 percent chance of winning the individual honor, significantly ahead of other contenders. France’s Ousmane Dembele was listed second at 14 percent, while fellow French star Kylian Mbappe followed at 13 percent.
BREAKING: Leo Messi is now the clear favorite to win the World Cup Golden Ball pic.twitter.com/EYwMzpWBYy
— Kalshi FC (@KalshiFC) May 31, 2026
The sharp rise in Messi’s odds comes despite the fierce competition expected from some of the world’s top attacking players, with bettors and observers continuing to back the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner for another standout performance on the global stage.
The World Cup is set to feature many of football’s biggest stars, with France aiming to capitalize on its status as tournament favorite and Messi seeking to add another major individual accolade to his decorated career.
